MODE CHOICE MODEL SENSITIVITIES

This page highlights the factors that influence accessibility scores and mode choice model outputs. The roster of key variables includes general indications of their impact on model results. For more details on mode choice model variables, see the mode choice model report

Four tables are presented in the tabs below:

• Access scores are sensitive to the locations of jobs and households as well as the travel networks for each analyzed mode. This table focuses on the network attributes that influence accessibility scores. Since these scores are used in the mode choice models, these factors have a downstream impact on estimated mode shares.
• Production end mode choice models combine access scores with household characteristics to estimate mode choice for the HBW, HBO, and HBSch purposes.
• Attraction end mode choice models focus primarily on accessibility scores, with some consideration of the characteristics of households that can access a given zone alongside built environment variables.
• Non-home-based mode choice models rely on access scores and the outputs of the attraction end mode choice models. When analyzing NHB trips, the mode of travel used to reach the non-home location is an important determinant of the likely mode of travel.

Model component details

Access scores

Network attributes and cost parameters impacting accessibility scores

Mode	Cost Component	Determinant of Cost	Influence
Walk	Time	Walk network distances	Shorter distances :: higher walk scores
	Time	Average walk speed	Shorter distances :: higher walk scores
Bike	Time	Bike network distance	Shorter distances :: higher bike scores
	Time	Average bicycle speed	Shorter distances :: higher bike scores
	Time	Speed adjustment for cycleway facilities	Greater proportion of path on cycleway :: higher bike scores
	Time	Speed adjustment for uncomfortable cycling conditions	Greater proportion of path on uncomfortable facilities :: lower bike scores
Transit	Time	In vehicle time	Shorter time on vehicle :: higher transit scores
	Time	Out of vehicle time	Shorter time walking to/from, waiting for vehicle :: higher transit scores
	Monetary Costs	Fare	Higher fares :: lower transit scores
	Monetary Costs	Parking charges (DAT)	Higher parking cost :: lower transit scores
Auto	Time	Congested travel time	More time/more congestion :: lower auto scores
	Time	Terminal time	Longer time to access vehicle :: lower auto scores
	Monetary Costs	Operating costs	Longer distances/higher costs :: lower auto scores
	Monetary Costs	Tolls	Higher charges :: lower auto scores
	Monetary Costs	Parking charges at destination	Higher charges :: lower auto scores

Production end mode choice

Mode choice model sensitivities for production end home-based models

Factor	Nest	Influence
Walk access to jobs	Walk v. Bike (non-motorized)	Higher scores :: more walk
Bike access to jobs	Non-motorized v. motorized	Higher score :: more non-motorized
	Walk v. Bike (non-motorized)	Higher scores :: more bike
Bike access from households	Non-motorized v. motorized	Higher scores relative to bike access to jobs :: more non-motorized (HBW only)
Transit (WAT) access to jobs	Auto v. Transit (motorized)	Higher scores :: more transit
	WAT v. DAT (Transit)	Higher scores :: more WAT
Transit (DAT) access to jobs	WAT v. DAT (Transit)	Higher scores :: more DAT
Auto access to jobs	Non-motorized v. motorized	Higher scores :: more motorized
	Auto v. Transit (motorized)	Higher scores :: more auto
Vehicle ownership	Non-motorized v. motorized	More vehicles :: more motorized
	Auto v. Transit (motorized)	More vehicles :: more auto
	Driver v. passenger (auto)	More vehicles :: more driver
Income	Auto v. transit (motorized)	Higher income :: more transit (HBW), more auto (other HB purposes)
	Driver v. passenger (auto)	Higher income :: more auto
	WAT v. DAT (Transit)	Higher income :: more DAT (HBW only)
	Walk v. Bike (non-motorized)	Higher income :: more bike
Workers	Auto v. transit (motorized)	More workers :: more transit (HBW only)
	Driver v. passenger (auto)	More workers :: more passenger (HBW only)
	WAT v. DAT (transit)	More workers :: more WAT (HBW only)
Walk time to transit	Auto v Transit (motorized)	Closer to premium transit :: more transit
	WAT v. DAT (transit)	Closer to transit :: more WAT

Attraction end mode choice

Mode choice model sensitivities for attraction-end models

Factor	Nest	Influence
Walk access to jobs	Walk v. Bike (non-motorized)	Higher scores :: more walk
	Driver v. passenger (auto)	Higher scores :: more passenger
Bike access to jobs	Non-motorized vs. motorized	Higher score :: more non-motorized
	Walk v. Bike (non-motorized)	Higher scores :: more bike
Bike access from households	Non-motorized vs. motorized	Higher scores relative to bike access to jobs :: more non-motorized (HBW only)
Transit (WAT) access to jobs	Auto v. Transit (motorized)	Higher scores :: more transit
Transit access from households	Auto v. Transit (motorized)	Higher scores relative to transit access to jobs :: more transit (HBW), more auto (HBO, HBS)
Auto access to jobs	Non-motorized vs. motorized	Higher scores :: more motorized
	Auto v. Transit (motorized)	Higher scores :: more auto
	Driver v. passenger (auto)	Higher scores :: more driver
	WAT v. DAT (transit)	Higher scores :: more DAT (regional centrality effect)
Vehicle ownership	Non-motorized vs. motorized	Higher number of zero-vehicle HHs (as a share of all HHs) with bike access to this zone :: more non-motorized
	Driver v. passenger (auto)	Higher number of vehicles (on average) for households with auto access to this zone :: more driver
	WAT v. DAT (transit)	Higher number of zero-vehicle HHs (as a share of all HHs) with WAT access to this zone :: more WAT
Income	Auto v. transit (motorized)	Higher number of low-income households with transit access to this zone :: more transit (HBW)
	Driver v. passenger (auto)	Higher number of high-income households with auto access to this zone :: more driver (HBW)
	WAT v. DAT (Transit)	Higher number of low-income households with WAT access to this zone :: more transit (HBW, HBO)
	Walk v. Bike (non-motorized)	Higher share of high-income households with bike  access to this zone :: more bike
Walk time to transit	Non-motorized v. motorized	Closer to premium transit :: more transit (NHB uses non-premium)
	Auto v. Transit (motorized)	Closer to transit :: more transit (different effect sizes for prem, non-prem)
	Driver v. passenger (auto)	Closer to non-premium transit :: more passenger (HBW only)
	WAT v. DAT (transit)	Closer to premium transit :: more WAT
Parking charges	Non-motorized v motorized	Higher parking charges :: more motorized attractions
	Auto v Transit (motorized)	Higher parking chares :: more transit attractions

Non-home-based mode choice

Mode choice model sensitivities for production end non-home-based models

Factor	Nest	Influence
Walk access to jobs	Walk v. Bike (non-motorized)	Higher scores :: more walk
Bike access to jobs	Non-motorized v. motorized	Higher score :: more non-motorized
	Walk v. Bike (non-motorized)	Higher scores :: more bike
Transit (WAT) access to jobs	Auto v. Transit (motorized)	Higher scores :: more transit
	WAT v. DAT (Transit)	Higher scores :: more WAT
Transit (DAT) access to jobs	WAT v. DAT (Transit)	Higher scores :: more DAT
Auto access to jobs	Non-motorized v. motorized	Higher scores :: more motorized
	Auto v. Transit (motorized)	Higher scores :: more auto
Previous mode of travel – Walk	Generally in all nests	Higher share of walk trips to zone of origin :: more non-driver NHB trips
Previous mode of travel – Bike	Generally in all nests	Higher share of bike trips to zone of origin  :: more non-driver NHB trips
Previous mode of travel – WAT	Generally in all nests	Higher share of WAT trips to zone of origin :: more non-driver NHB trips
Previous mode of travel – DAT	Generally in all nests	Higher share of DAT trips to zone of origin :: more non-driver NHB trips and more DAT NHB trips
Previous mode of travel – Passenger	Generally in all nests	Higher share of passenger trips to zone of origin :: more non-driver NHB trips
Walk time to transit	Auto v Transit (motorized)	Closer to premium or non-premium transit :: more transit
	WAT v. DAT (transit)	Closer to premium transit :: more WAT